EUR/USD erased Thursday’s gains and lost 0.53% on Friday. In the United States, consumer sentiment improved even as retail sales slowed. EUR/USD Price Forecast: Price above 20-day EMA may challenge 0.9800; Otherwise, it may test a YTD low. EUR/USD is losing its grip around the 20-day EMA and is declining as the North American session progresses. The US dollar remains steady after Thursday’s warm US inflation report, while US economic data was mixed and mixed. The Fed’s comment strengthened the relationship. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 0.972 . On Friday’s price change, EUR/USD opened the day high at 0.9808, above the 20-day EMA, but buyers failing to hold firm paved the way for further losses. EUR/USD GOES TO CHEAPER RETAIL SALES IN THE US; NON-TRADE UPDATE The US Commerce Department said retail sales stalled in September, coming in at 0% MoM, below the 0.2% forecast, while annual growth slowed further to 8. 1% from 9.15%. The Fed’s monetary policy shock. Later, the consumer sentiment of the University of Michigan improved steadily in October, with the index jumping to 59.8 from 58.6, even when inflation expectations were revised upwards, with prices expected to rise 5.1% from .7. The data did not move EUR / USD much, although the Fed spoke, it boosted the dollar. Fed Geroge, Daly and Cook reiterated that inflation is too high and monetary policy must be tighter for longer to contain inflation. Daly added that he believes the federal funds rate (FFR, peaking at .50-5.0%, while Lisa Cook expressed that the Fed should avoid a „stop” approach to rates. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund IMF ) predicted recession in Italy and Germany in 2023. So, if it looked bleak, the Eurozone scenario now looks even worse. According to Eurozone data released at the European session, Spanish inflation accelerated less than expected, followed by French data. Some ECB speakers crossed wires. The ECB’s Vasle said 75 basis points in October and December could be appropriate, while the ECB’s Centeno added that the ECB needed to be „tough” on inflation but suggested postponing QT discussions to next year. Price forecast of EUR/USD The daily chart of EUR/USD illustrates the stock market stopping at the 20-day EMA, which deepened the decline to the 0.9720 area. Key support is at 0.9700 which, once cleared, could open the door for a retest of the YTD low at 0.9535. On the positive side, if EUR/USD reaches 0.9786, the top could rival 0.9800.

James Rogers

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