Lagarde’s at the wheel and it’s as messy as ever for the ECB

A couple of key takeaways from the ECB yesterday:

  • Forward guidance is irrelevant; whatever the central bank preached in June is all out the window and future policy decisions have now moved on to a meeting-by-meeting scenario
  • ECB policymakers may be more comfortable with frontloading rate hikes, which could see a more than 50 bps rate hike in September
  • However, the terminal rate has not really changed so the end goal remains the same although Lagarde herself does not know where that is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Introduction of Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to deal with fragmentation risks but the ECB will be the judge, jury, and executioner of said mechanism

BofA summed it up pretty well. From „whatever it takes” to „whatever”.

James Rogers

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