Russian oil rubles have nowhere to go, except Turkey

Russia today needs to save its surplus oil revenues for a rainy day tomorrow. Turkey is an ideal partner in the face of sanctions. It is politically neutral, allows the free movement of capital, and its currency is negatively correlated with oil. Turkey will also benefit from Russia 's influx of oil revenues .

Any country in which Russia considers storing its savings must meet three criteria:
It must be neutral with regard to the military conflict in Ukraine, otherwise there is a risk of an asset freeze. This condition excludes advanced economies. It also excludes most of Central and Eastern Europe.
It must allow the free movement of capital in order to have access to savings and withdraw them if necessary. This criterion excludes China and India.

The host currency should also be negatively correlated with oil to protect it from fluctuations in energy prices. This limitation does not apply to Brazil, Indonesia and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

James Rogers

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